My previous cultural posts have focused the role of religion in Afghanistan's past. Surely, it is a lot easier to write about the past for numerous reasons; the history has already occurred, I am able to gather stories and input from relatives who grew up and used to live in Afghanistan. However, the future of Afghanistan is pressing issue for the nation that will most likely impact the role of subjects such as religion, education and government. It will also be interesting to see if Afghanistan continues the progressive trend it once embarked on; more of which can be read in my previous blog post. Therefore, I thought it would be worthwhile to spend time researching and discussing the future outlook for Afghanistan.
One important situation to keep watch on is the United States' presence in Afghanistan. In recent weeks, the U.S. government has been working on strategies in Afghanistan after 2014; which is when Afghan forces are expected to takeover the U.S.-led effort. Current planning suggests retaining 10,000 U.S. troops within the nation (for reference, there are roughly 66,000 right now); more in regards to the U.S. strategy can be read in this New York Times article. It is difficult to predict what will happen, but it will be interesting to see how security in Afghanistan will be altered when the nation's military takes control of the situation. A tremendous issue for the Afghan military is that it lacks funding and does not have a large number of troops compared with other military forces stationed in the nation, such as the U.S.
A lot will hinge on the success of Afghan forces after 2014. There is certainly a large amount of speculation over what exactly what might happen. In an article for Foreign Policy, Haseeb Humayoon remarked, "Alarmists about Afghanistan's future paint two likely scenarios: civil war, or the forceful return of the Taliban." Certainly, Humayoon highlights that some question whether the Afghan military will actually be able to keep Afghanistan safe. But one has to questions whether civil war or the Taliban serve a threat to Afghanistan. That said, Afghanistan is nation home to millions that have lived through both a civil war and have seen the rise of the Taliban. It would be shocking to see a population so affected by both experiences able to allow both to occur, yet again.
Another important factor, also in 2014, is Afghanistan's presidential election; which the Independent Election Commission of Afghanistan has set for April 5, 2014. Afghanistan will undergo a change in leadership as Hamid Karzai cannot run for reelection in accords with the nation's constitution. Two major issues of the last election, held in 2009, were security and fraud, and it is still difficult to tell whether those two issues will remain or not after five years time. With a change in military slated and elections upcoming, it will be interesting to see how things play out in Afghanistan in the coming years.
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